КОЛЕКТИВНІ СУДЖЕННЯ, ЯК ІНСТРУМЕНТ ПЕРЕДБАЧЕННЯ ТА КОНСТРУЮВАННЯ МАЙБУТНЬОГО

Abstract

The theoretical analyze is give and empirical studies are provided to the phenomena of crowd judgments. It is shown that crowd judgment in 80-90% cases is more accurate than individual opinion. The main circumstances which influence the quality of the crowd judgment are diversity, independence and decentralization. The effective use of the statistics in the summing up of diverse data is pointed at. Our empirical study has shown some obstacles of using crowd mind as a prognostic tool: inability to get insulated judgments in the small groups, emotional engagement of people into some issues, lack of confidence in the presence of main relevant information which can determine future event. The perspective of using the crowd judgments in the improving quality of many important decisions in many areas of people’s life is discussed.